A new risk assessment frame work for cypriot manufacturing units based on stochastic analysis (the Gregoriou industry case study)

Two fire growth models for enclosures have been developed using a stochastic and a probabilistic approach. The first is based on probability tree analysis, while the second one is a typical Markov approach to the problem. A state transition model was built in order to provide the appropriate transition probabilities needed by the two models and a deterministic mainframe was used in order to close the set of equations in the probabilistic model. New criteria for the definition of the mean time spent in each of the fire stages are proposed and finally results from both approaches are compared to each other and with previous analysis. Results from a nationwide survey are used to furnish the models. The study concentrates on the development of a new risk assessment framework for use by the Cypriot manufacturing industry and it is funded by the Cyprus Research Promotion Foundation. An infamous catastrophe in the Cypriot manufacturing industry is used to illustrate the examples.